Debt,diversification and earnings management

In this article we use panel-estimation techniques to calculate discretionary accruals (DAC) and to produce a better understanding of the nature of the relation between debt and earnings management. Consistent with the transparency hypothesis (which suggests that diversification increases the complexity of firms’ activities and reduces their transparency to outsiders), we find that for less-diversified (more transparent) firms, debt reduces positive discretionary accruals, whereas in relatively more-diversified (less transparent) firms the impact of debt becomes positive. Our paper shows that marginal increases in debt provide the incentives for managers to manipulate earnings, and diversification provides the needed context for this accounting practice to be possible. We have also found that only in the sub-sample of aggressive firms, those that manage discretionary accruals with enough magnitude to increase income, do lenders exert their control. Some firms, however, take advantage of diversification to avoid this control. Our findings are robust to several earnings-management measures and methodologies.     

International Variation in Accounting Measurement Rules and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors

We theorize that accounting systems affect analysts' forecast accuracy through changes in earnings variability. We argue that the matching and historical cost principles reduce earnings variability, and hence, reduce analysts' earnings forecast errors. We also argue that restricting the choice of accounting methods can result in larger forecast errors. We argue that more informative disclosure environments should reduce forecast errors. We test whether variation in these factors across countries explain variation in analysts' earnings forecast bias and accuracy. Our results indicate that these characteristics of financial accounting systems are complements, and that they affect financial analysts' earnings forecast errors.     

融资需求、盈余管理与公司资本配置效率

本文以我国 2011~2015 年的 A 股上市公司为考察对象，实证检验了融资需求与盈余管理的关系，及在融资需求驱动下,不同盈余管理方式对资本配置效率的影响。研究发现：融资需求与盈余管理呈显著正相关，即企业融资需求越强烈，发生盈余管理活动的可能性越大，盈余管理程度也越高；盈余管理行为会影响会计信息质量，提高信息不对称程度，进而容易引发非效率投资问题，但盈余管理并不总是会降低资本投资效率，基于融资需求的盈余管理对缓解非效率投资有一定的积极作用。     

Do politicians reward core supporters? Evidence from a discretionary grant program

We investigate whether politicians award intergovernmental grants to core supporters. Our new dataset contains information on discretionary project grants from a German state government to municipalities over the period 2008–2011. The results show that discretionary grants were awarded to municipalities with many core supporters of the incumbent state government. Discretionary grants per capita increased by about 1.4 percent when the vote share of the incumbent party in the state election increased by one percentage point. The fiscal capacity of a municipality does, by contrast, not predict the level of discretionary grants. We propose to trim discretionary project grants to the benefit of formula-based grants.     

Identifying,valuing and hedging of embedded options in non-maturity deposits

Non-maturity deposits like savings accounts or demand deposits contain significant option risks caused by the bank’s discretionary pricing and the customers’ withdrawal right. Option risks follow from inherent non-linear factor exposures. I propose an ordinal response model for deposit rate jumps to identify non-linear factor exposures and a discrete-time term structure model to value the resulting option risks and to derive hedge measures “outside the model”. My delta profile resembles a constant maturity swap, but vega and gamma are more pronounced, which demonstrates that the widespread practice of static hedging with zero bonds is inadequate.     

The future of walking in Europe: a Delphi project to identify expert opinion on future walking scenarios

There is increasing recognition of the importance of walking to the sustainability of cities, set against a continuing decline in everyday walking. This paper reports on a research project, which predicts trends in walking in Europe by 2010 by seeking opinion of experts who are knowledgeable about non-motorised transport. There is a consensus that there will be more walking for leisure and health, but less everyday walking. This will happen despite walking being seen as more important and there being more facilities, infrastructure, information and funding for walking.     

沪港通影响了A股市场的应计异象吗？

基于应计异象视角,以2011—2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本,利用双重差分模型实证检验沪港通交易机制对A股市场定价效率的影响,结果表明:沪港通交易机制的实施显著加剧了应计异象,利用PSM纠正样本选择偏差后,结论依然稳健。进一步研究发现,沪港通交易机制对应计异象具有双重影响:一方面,与投资/增长假说相一致,投资水平提高加剧了投资/增长导致的应计异象;另一方面,与会计扭曲假说相一致,盈余管理水平降低缓解了盈余管理导致的应计异象,但这一作用有限。整体来看,沪港通交易机制加剧了我国证券市场上的应计异象。     

Rate regulation of U.S. electric utilities: Does it deter earnings management?

This study is the first broadly-based examination of earnings management within the rate-regulated U.S. electric utility industry. In a three-phase analysis using extant discretionary accrual models in the earnings-management literature, we provide evidence that: (1) on average, rate regulation appears to deter earnings management; (2) relaxing rate regulation (i.e., deregulation) tends to increase the potential for earnings management; and (3) in those situations in which utilities are seeking increased rates from regulators, sufficient accounting latitude exists under GAAP to allow utility management to depress reported earnings. As this last finding may persuade regulators to approve a utility's rate request, triggering increased electricity rates, the potential exists for wealth transfers between “captured” rate-paying customers and shareholders. The study's results also provide for the first time empirical justification for accounting researchers to exclude rate-regulated firms from cross-sectional, inter-industry research designs examining discretionary accruals.     

我国微利上市公司盈余管理方式选择研究

盈余管理是造成会计信息质量低下的重要原因之一。面对可以相互替代使用的真实盈余管理和应计盈余管理两种方式,管理者如何权衡决策以及盈余管理方式选择的影响因素是投资者和监管部门识别和防范盈余管理行为的核心和关键。本文以2001-2009年微利上市公司为样本,在Hausman设定误差检验结果的基础上构建联立方程,研究盈余管理方式选择的时间次序和盈余管理方式选择的影响因素。研究发现管理者在进行盈余管理决策时,真实盈余管理决策和应计盈余管理决策是同时做出的,两类盈余管理程度相互影响;盈余管理成本影响盈余管理方式的选择,当企业处于缺少行业竞争力的地位时,真实盈余管理的空间较小,管理者会采用相对较多的应计盈余管理,而当企业本身的会计业务受到严格监管时,管理者则会倾向采用较多的真实盈余管理实现预期目标。